Whether to Pay Attention to the Weather

Friday I started watching the weather for the Mascoma, NH Spring Laser regatta. I have enjoyed the regatta in the past years, the sailing is usually pretty good and the competition in the Master classes is tough. My Laser is so easy to trailer that I enjoy going to regattas all around New England. The only drawback is that I will end up driving a couple of hours up and back and so it becomes particularly important to be sure the weather will allow the regatta to be held.

I usually first check the weather on the hour-to-hour forecasts on weather.com. I know that I’m really getting information for some nearby airport, but it is usually a pretty good look at the general weather pattern over the next couple of days. I didn’t like what I saw for Saturday – 60% chance of showers starting at the time the regatta was due to start and continuing throughout the day. The countdown to a difficult decision began.

Forecasts that speak in odds leave a lot to be desired – 60% chance of rain. Should I drive two hours to an away regatta when there is a 60% chance it will be rained out? Does the 60% mean 60% of the area will get rain, that any given area has a 60% chance of rain at any given time, or rain will occur 60% of the time? Are those the same?

I ended up bailing out on Saturday. I couldn’t face the four hour drive with a 60% chance of no sailing. I really hope they had a 60% fun regatta.

On Wednesday night QYC had twilight racing scheduled. The weather forecast was for a cloudy day with light winds in the range of 4 to 6. At about 6:00 PM, when the twilight racing was set to begin, there was a 40% chance of showers. I had time to either get in some needed practice sailing in the mid afternoon, or race in the evening. I’d have preferred the racing but I didn’t want wait for the race and then get rained out and not sail at all. I went out at 1:00 PM and sailed alone until significantly dark clouds appeared over the tree tops two hours later.

My wife laughs and groans at the way our sport is so dependent on something as undependable as the weather. She claims that her yoga classes are rarely cancelled on account of bad weather, but I remind her that she rarely gets to go swimming during a class; that’s where the groans often occur.

This is the sailing life. If you hope to survive with your mental health reasonably intact you need to develop a system for managing weather related sailing decisions with only approximate information. And I find that my reluctance to sail can affect the weather at particular venues. I see 60% odds of rain as a pretty sure thing when I’m hesitant about the swell running after a storm, but more like a 50/50 thing when I like the area the course is set in.

Remembering that decisions are made emotionally and then supported with data, I start with a quick inventory of my feelings. If the weather was good, where would I rate my level of positive anticipation for this event? As I said, there are venues that I have to push myself to get to and there are days that I’m feeling in more of a recovery phase rather than a push myself place.

Will there be fun or interesting people around? I’m not attracted by a party scene but I enjoy accomplished sailors and individuals who are striving to understand and improve their sailing. Interesting people have questions and don’t know everything.

I can also get a better reading of my motivation if I review the particular skills I’m working on in my practice sessions. Does this regatta give me an opportunity to explore those skills further? Will the conditions challenge me or will I just be in a hang-on mode? I find surviving heavy-air regattas more tiresome than instructive, light air is interesting if there isn’t a lot of waves and chop.

Where does sailing fit into my current list of things that are important to do? It is important to me that I improve my sailing, but it is also important that I see my granddaughters and check in with my mother who lives alone. I’m very fortunate that my wife shares my notion that activities like sailing are crucial to both our individual happiness and the strength of our relationship.

Only when I have a good understanding of my internal motivation and the current state of my world will I turn my attention to the weather. I now have a context for making a decision about how much I will be betting on a specific weather forecast.

I find it easiest to do my real evaluation of the weather just before I need to begin final preparations for departure. So up until that time I prepare as if I’m going – going is my default. I’m reluctant to subject myself to discomfort and so that means I have to get my inertia moving on the side of getting out there. Some of my friends are so gung-ho that they need to slow themselves down and only go when they have found a couple of good reasons and no major negatives.

After over thirty-five years of sailing I’ve seen enough bad forecasts turn into glorious days that I’m pretty comfortable risking a wasted day on 30% chance of bad weather if I have less than an hour’s drive. I will even go to a regatta if I know it won’t be cancelled because of the rain. Likewise I will usually go to a race if the wind is light and just take my chances. I don’t find light air as frustrating as many do.

The longer I sail, the more my thinking incorporates statistical notions. What are the odds I will feel better sitting at home and wondering than sitting in the parking lot? Am I 60% more likely to miss a good regatta or drive for nothing? Since there is no easy answer I weigh my energy and feelings until some piece of information surfaces that creates a tipping point. And my tipping point is often, “What else am I missing by taking the time to take a chance on this regatta or race?” And if there is any doubt? I get myself in the car and let the decision as to whether or not I’m going to race, be made by the race committee and the weather as it presents itself on the water.